A novice bookie’s guide to the Goulburn 2019 election

The 2019 election for the seat of Goulburn is heading into unchartered territory.

Since 1965, the seat has been in Coalition hands. Ron Brewer (Nats) held it for around 20 years, Robert Webster (Nats) for about 7, John Fahey and Peta Seaton (both Libs) held it for a combined 20 years as the rebadged and redrawn Southern Highlands electorate, and then Pru Goward (Libs) for the last 12.

But four years ago former senator Ursula Stephens took a chunk out of the Liberal Party lead with a swing of 20.2 per cent to Labor.

So the 2019 was expected to be the rematch. Rocky II. Seconds out, ding ding.

And as with any good sequel, there are a few twists.

Goulburn had become marginal. This was good news for all local voters (blue, red or any other colour you like). In a seat that typically finished low on the pork-barrelling list because all the Coalition had to do was show up and win, we are now being courted. Neighbouring electorates were beneficiaries of incredible largess while we were left going back to the Master and saying, “Please sir, can we have some more?”

Enter the main plot twist. Pru Goward pulls out of the election in December with around three months to the election.

Cue scrambling. Who will replace her? Will it be by local vote or external dictate? Will the Nats run against the eventual Liberal candidate? Who else will run?

The dust has settled a bit in the month and a half since Pru’s announcement and things are starting to take shape. We have a declared field of five candidates (so far… potentially more to come).

We know who the Libs candidate is, and we know that Nats are unlikely to make it a three-cornered contest.

Now, I am NOT a gifted prognosticator nor a capable bookie so my tips on the field lack both predictive certainty and reliable betting credibility (my odds will probably be way off what a bookie would offer)

That having been said, here is my guide to the field for the 2019 electorate.

SAAN ECKER (GREENS): 100/1

I don’t know much about Saan, but I suspect the same is true for much of the electorate. Greens candidates in a lower house election (generically), are frequently in the mix to keep their policies front and centre to influence the other candidates, and to court the implementation of some of their policies through preferences, rather than genuinely expect a shot at the title. As Saan is planning to be the candidate for both the state and federal elections, it kind of tilts her hat that she is expecting at least one loss.

There is a worldwide reaction to the two main parties in most countries and there is a growing movement to find a credible third party in most markets. The Democrats filled that bill very well, until they didn’t (see also “Carbon tax”). The Greens have attempted to be that third party but, while their representative numbers across state and federal and all states have been respectable, they haven’t taken a dominant chunk from the landscape and, as their political positioning is considerably to the left, they are unlikely to attract disaffected Coalition voters looking for that other choice.

ANDY WOOD (SHOOTERS, FISHERS AND FARMERS): 80/1

Andy comes to the table as a well-known and well-respected Goulburn teacher. In that regard he doesn’t come across as a second amendment quoting (I know, that’s America.. humour me), aggressive gun-toting hard-liner, although I’ve yet to see if he has a sticker on his car that says “I shoot, and I vote.”

This party has expanded its policies and platforms beyond the three central planks of fishing, farming and shooting issues, but not by much. That anger in the community against the two main parties has improved their chances and their vote, and placing such a likeable and reasonable bloke as their Goulburn candidate won’t hurt, but his familiarity to this part of the electorate also translates to not being well known in the Highlands, Yass and Boorowa.

RICHARD ORCHARD (ONE NATION): 20/1

Richard is the dark horse of this race. Let’s start with his strengths. He is keenly active in community activities, has a long history working for political parties, campaigns and elected representatives, and he puts a credibility to the often critiqued One Nation Party. So he has the nous to run a campaign, to stay on message and to focus attention on the bits of the One Nation platform he wants people to pay attention to.

One of the biggest obstacles before him is the Party he is running for. Mark Latham and Pauline Hanson come with considerable baggage (and I’ll try to leave my own baggage regarding them to one side for now). Their previous comments are in the public domain and arguing against One Nation becomes easier by virtue of that. Many of the party’s followers champion the comment that “They tell it like it is,” as if that’s a rare trait… when they really mean “They tell it how I see it.” One Nation would like to take on that third party mantle in Australia. Ironically, one of their central platforms is an end to personality politics despite the fact the Party is still called Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party. This remains a problem for all of the parties baring someone’s name in their title (Bob Katter, Clive Palmer etc) as it defocuses the policies and aims for personal affinity. That’s a distraction for One Nation because many of their individual policies aren’t all that harsh or too right of centre.

The biggest problem for Richard, as I see it, will be answering for One Nation’s broader reputation, actions and quotes. If Richard had run as an independent, I think he would have been a real chance. He still may be a chance, but as he had his anti-Liberal epiphany only very recently he will need others to have their own epiphanies in a very short space of time too. The timing may be tough.

WENDY TUCKERMAN (LIBERAL): 3/1

Based on last election, an Ursula v Pru election could have gone either way. Labor had made great inroads, and every day in government tends to push the pendulum further away from the incumbent. I haven’t seen the polling (although I known it exists) but I’ve been led to believe it tipped a win to Ursula Stephens. Take Pru out of the equation and it complicates it a little. Even though Pru’s announcement came quite late, the Liberal Party did stuff around for a long while to name Wendy Tuckerman (although she had been anointed quite a while before it was announced). Wendy is quite well known in her stomping grounds around Boorowa but is almost entirely unknown anywhere east of Yass… and Goulburn + the Highlands is a whole lot of electorate.

Add to that the fact that the Libs have gone with a captain’s call for the candidate and bypassed rank and file selection and you have quite a few disaffected life -long Libs who are mad as hell and not going to take it any more (one of which, Richard Orchard, was even motivated to stand against the Party he’d given so many years to). Their stablemates, the Nats, are also furious with the process and so it’s not one big happy family over at Team Blue. And that doesn’t even bring in controversial state-wide Lib issues like building stadiums etc.

Having said that, cast your minds back to the 2011 state election when Crystal Validakis picked up 23.4 per cent of the Labor two-party preferred vote without ever stepping into the electorate or saying a word. ALP voters were furious with the cynical half-arsed decision to field a candidate and do nothing about it and yet STILL voted for her in big numbers. Vocalised anger doesn’t always equate to what loyal voters do when they actually step into the booth, so expect Wendy Tuckerman to poll well and possibly even win.

URSULA STEPHENS (ALP): 2/1

Here’s the kiss of death. This election is Ursula’s to lose. The Labor Party grass roots machine is well organised and hard working and were a large part of the swing to Ursula last election. They have hit the ground running again this election and were well advanced in their efforts well before the Libs had a candidate. But complacency precedes a fall. Any thought that any election is a lay down misere is like cancer to a campaign.

Any personal negative polling that existed against Pru has now been wiped from the slate and Wendy Tuckerman, although largely unknown in some parts, has the benefit of starting as a clean skin. Disaffected Libs may be more tempted to vote for Wendy than they would have for Pru. Both major parties will be making financial offers throughout the campaign and that also may lure some to the Coalition.

Plotted on a graph, the extrapolated ALP trajectory through last election and on to this one looked very promising but it HAS been 53 years since they’ve held this electorate and that’s not nothing. It’s not a fait accompli and while one set of statistics points to a Labor win, a lengthier set says this is a long-term Coalition electorate. This is a real contest.

Ding, ding.